CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-08-17T10:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-08-17T10:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40624/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, STEREO A COR2, and GOES CCOR-1 imagery. The source is likely an eruption from Active Region 14179 (S17W15) starting around 2025-08-17T09:15Z as seen in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304, GOES SUVI 284/304, and STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery. Dimming is seen in SDO AIA 193 from the eruption site, and a clear deflection to the southeast can be observed. There is a coronal hole northeast of the eruption site which likely accounts for this deflection. Additionally, brightening can be observed from Active Region 14180 around 2025-08-17T09:15Z but it is unclear if this is related to the observed CME or not.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-08-20T12:50Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 45.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 44.85 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-08-18T15:59Z
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